Who Will Emerge As Iraq’s New Leader As Iran’s Regional Position Shifts?
WhatIraq's new prime minister will be chosen following the 11 November parliamentary elections, with the outcome influenced by the shifting regional dynamics between Iran and its neighbors.
WhyThe U.S./Israel-Iran conflict has created a power vacuum in Iraq, allowing various factions to vie for control, with Iran's regional position being a key factor in determining the next prime minister.
SignalThe broadly pro-West sitting Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' al-Sudani's loss of support in the elections signals a potential shift towards more pro-Iranian or independent factions, which could have significant implications for Iraq's future.
TargetThe new prime minister will likely target rebuilding Iraq's economy, addressing the country's ongoing security challenges, and navigating its complex relationships with regional and global powers.
RiskThe risk of instability and conflict in Iraq remains high, as various factions and external actors continue to exert influence, potentially leading to a prolonged period of uncertainty and power struggles.