Stock Market Crash in 2026? The S&P 500 Sounds an Alarm as Recession Odds Just Hit Their Highest Level in Years. Here's What History Says Happens Next.
By Bullbit Editorial · March 29, 2026
WhatThe S&P 500 has triggered a recession warning signal with a 60% chance of a downturn in the next year.
WhyMoody's recession model is flashing a warning signal due to a combination of factors, including high inflation and rising oil prices.
SignalThe S&P 500's recession signal is based on a 10% decline in the index over the past six months.
TargetHistorically, a recession has followed a recession signal from the S&P 500 about 80% of the time.
RiskThe risk of a recession is higher than it was before oil prices spiked to $120 a barrel.