How the Strait of Hormuz Crisis Could Trigger a Global Fertilizer Shock
WhatThe Strait of Hormuz crisis poses a significant threat to global fertilizer trade, as the waterway's closure could severely disrupt the supply chain of ammonia and urea, two essential components in fertilizer production.
WhyThe crisis is expected to have far-reaching consequences, as the Strait of Hormuz is a critical shipping route for approximately 20% of global ammonia and 15% of global urea exports, with many countries relying heavily on these imports for agricultural production.
SignalRystad Energy's 2025 trade mapping indicates that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to a significant shortage of ammonia and urea, potentially triggering a global fertilizer shock, which could have devastating effects on food production and global food security.
TargetCountries heavily reliant on imported fertilizers, such as Japan, South Korea, and many African nations, may be disproportionately affected by the crisis, as they struggle to maintain food production and meet the demands of their growing populations.
RiskThe global fertilizer crisis could also have broader economic implications, including increased food prices, supply chain disruptions, and potential social unrest, as governments and consumers grapple with the consequences of the Strait of Hormuz closure.