Analysis: A new oil shock is building. The next few weeks of war will be decisive for the economy.

What: Energy markets are starting to reflect the growing risk of physical supply disruptions, signaling a potential new oil shock.
Why: The ongoing war is expected to impact oil production and transportation, exacerbating existing supply chain issues.
Signal: Oil prices have risen by 5% over the past week, with Brent crude trading at $74.50 per barrel.
Target: Analysts predict that oil prices could reach $80 per barrel if the conflict escalates further.
Risk: A new oil shock could have significant economic implications, including higher inflation and reduced consumer spending.